Thailand’s exports forecast to slow in second half of 2026

The Thai National Shippers' Council expects exports to expand by around 2–4% year on year in the second half while full-year growth could still reach 3–5% if global trade avoids any major new disruption.

The Thai National Shippers' Council (TNSC) has projected that Thailand’s exports will continue to expand in the second half of 2026, though at a slower pace, as the country faces increasing risks from the global economic slowdown, geopolitical tensions and volatility in international trade.

TNSC Chairman Thanakorn Kasetsuwan said Thailand’s exports have posted solid growth in the first half of the year, driven largely by importers in many markets accelerating orders in anticipation of possible changes in trade and tariff policies in the coming months.

However, he noted that this front-loading effect is expected to weaken in the second half, resulting in a moderation of export growth momentum.

The council expects exports to expand by around 2–4% year on year in the second half while full-year growth could still reach 3–5% if global trade avoids any major new disruption.

The TNSC warned that uncertainties in the global economy, geopolitical tensions in several regions, particularly the Middle East, and fluctuations in the trade policies of major economies will continue to pose risks to export activities.

Although the US and Iran have signed a peace agreement, uncertainties surrounding negotiations on a final settlement and the situation in the Strait of Hormuz could still have implications for the global economy, the council noted.

In addition, the economic outlook in Thailand’s key export markets, including the US, the European Union (EU), China and Japan, is also under pressure from slowing growth, persistently high interest rates, and a gradual recovery in consumer confidence. This could result in weaker-than-expected import demand in certain sectors.

However, the TNSC maintained that Thailand still holds competitive advantages in several key export categories such as processed food and agricultural products, animal feed, fruits, health and wellness products, natural rubber, and goods related to food security.

In addition, the expansion into new markets, including the Middle East, South Asia, Africa, and ASEAN countries, is expected to help reduce dependence on traditional export destinations and create additional room for long-term growth./.

Source: Vietnam+