Many Thais rejoiced after Joe Biden won the US presidential election over the weekend. But certain concerns remain as the US changes its leader; in particular, challenges currently facing Thailand's international trade.
What the Thai government must do is hasten the mapping out its of its international trade strategy, a process currently moving at a snail's pace.
Thailand is still of strategic importance in terms of the US's engagement with China.
No matter who ultimately the election, the trade dispute between China and the US was always expected to rumble on with Thailand feeling pressured to take a side.
Under Mr Biden, demands for access to US markets are likely to be linked with pressure to address human rights issues.
Policies aimed at reducing or deterring China's growing economic expansion will continue and they are generally considered to be broadly popular across the US political spectrum.
Although several experts predict the trade war may ease after Mr Biden takes the White House, they don't doubt that tensions will remain. Washington may make a U-turn on the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) but it could also adopt more non-tariff barriers in accordance with Mr Biden's "Buy American" policy.
As the US budget deficit has hit a record high of more than US$3 trillion and its trade deficit was as high as $64 billion in September, the new president will be forced to continue -- if not intensify -- measures to put pressure on the countries with trade surpluses over the US, including Thailand.
The US decided last week to suspend preferential trade benefits for certain Thai products under the Generalized System of Preferences (GSP).
Even though the government has tried to downplay the impact of the measure, saying the likely losses will be limited to around US$19 million or 600 million baht, further non-tariff barriers erected by the US against the kingdom cannot be ruled out.
According to US Trade Representative, despite 12 years of bilateral engagement, Thailand has yet to provide the US with equitable and reasonable market access for pork products, as outlined in a 2018 petition from the National Pork Producers Council requesting removal of GSP benefits.
Thailand is limited in its ability to manage the baht to support its economic recovery after being put on a US watchlist of suspected currency manipulators which could cause further trade sanctions.
As a result, it is unlikely that pressure from the US will ease up, so the government must look to strengthen its overall international trade policy.
Unfortunately, the lack of a clear strategic direction is hampering Thailand's ability to resist falling prey to those nations either powerful enough or smart enough to chart a course into less turbulent times.
As several bilateral and multilateral trade agreements including trade deals with both the UK and EU, are pending, the government should look into a possibility to speed up the process.
Vietnam, meanwhile, has secured trade and economic agreements worth almost three times more, as the country reaps substantial benefits from incentivising manufacturers to relocate from China and Hong Kong.
Of course, all trade agreements need careful consideration but the government must work harder on policy and strategy and rely less on the continued patronage larger historical trade partners.
Source: Bangkok Post
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<p>Time: November 2025<br /> By: WTO and International Trade Group, Legal Department – VCCI</p>
