Thailand risks losing between 7% and 14% of its GDP by 2050 if it fails to adapt to climate change, according to a comprehensive World Bank report released on Friday.
However, strategic investments in climate resilience and green technology could instead boost the economy by 4-5% whilst positioning the country to achieve its high-income aspirations.
The Thailand Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR) warns that the costs of inaction far outweigh investment needs, with heat-related productivity losses, flooding, and water scarcity threatening the nation's economic competitiveness and its goal of becoming a high-income country by 2037.
"Thailand's future competitiveness will hinge on reducing the emission intensity of its economy and shifting production towards greener goods and services—steps that can create new industries, generate high-quality jobs, and keep Thailand attractive to investors in a low-carbon world," said Melinda Good, World Bank Division Director for Thailand and Myanmar.
Mounting Physical Risks
Thailand ranks amongst the ten most flood-prone countries globally, with the Chao Phraya river basin—home to 40% of the population and generating 66% of GDP—particularly vulnerable.
The devastating 2011 floods, which caused damages equivalent to 12.6% of GDP, could be repeated with increasing frequency under climate change scenarios.
The report projects that by 2050, heat-related labour productivity losses will emerge as the most significant economic threat, affecting workers across all sectors nationwide.
In Bangkok, each 1°C temperature rise could generate costs of 85-123 billion baht related to heat deaths, productivity losses, and increased energy consumption—equivalent to 1.6-2% of the capital's GDP.
Coastal erosion already affects 30% of Thailand's coastline and could cost the tourism sector US$1 billion annually by the mid-2040s without intervention.
Meanwhile, water scarcity in key agricultural regions and industrial zones, including the Eastern Economic Corridor, will worsen significantly.
Substantial Returns on Climate Investment
Whilst the challenges are severe, the World Bank identifies considerable economic opportunities.
The report estimates that US$219 billion in climate-related investments will be needed over the next 25 years—equivalent to 2.4% of cumulative GDP—but the returns substantially exceed the costs.
Investments in flood mitigation, water security, coastal protection, and cooling infrastructure could raise annual GDP by 2-3% by 2040 and 4-5% by 2050 compared with business-as-usual scenarios.
The government's "Nine Plans" for Chao Phraya basin flood management, combined with nature-based coastal solutions and water infrastructure improvements, form the cornerstone of this adaptive strategy.
Source: Nation Thailand
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<p>Time: November 2025<br /> By: WTO and International Trade Group, Legal Department – VCCI</p>
