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Tariff impact on exports appears contained for now, says Apex Securities

22 tháng 09. 2025

MALAYSIA’S exports growth number for August indicates that impact from US reciprocal tariffs remains milder than initially feared.

“That said, risks are tilted to the downside, including a potential US semiconductor tariff, softer Chinese demand, lower crude oil prices and a stronger ringgit,” Apex Securities Sdn Bhd said in a report released today on Malaysia’s external trade.

Gross imports contracted by 5.9% (July: +0.6%) as capital goods moderated and intermediate goods demand continued to decline.

Consequently, it said the trade surplus widened further to RM16.1 billion, the highest in five months (July: RM14.6 billion).

On a YTD basis, exports and imports grew 3.9% and 3.6% respectively (8M24: +6.1% and +16.7%), still above its full-year forecast, Apex Securities said.

It said the slowdown in export growth was led by softer manufactured goods (+1.7% YoY; July: +8.7%), with electrical and electronics (E&E), chemical products and metals pulling back from July’s surge.

By destination, shipments to Singapore slowed sharply (+2.7%; July: +22.2%), while exports to the US contracted (-16.7%; July: +3.8%), partly reflecting a high base in August 2024.

In contrast, it noted that exports to China (+10.4%; July: +6.1%) and the EU (+9.7%; July: +5.7%) strengthened.

“The broad resilience in key markets beyond the US signals some cushion as US tariff risks loom,” it said.

Source: The Malaysian Reserve

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