Singapore’s non-oil domestic exports (Nodx) fell for the third consecutive month in April by a milder 9.3 per cent from a year earlier, easing from a revised 20.8 per cent contraction in March 2024.
Trade agency Enterprise Singapore said on May 17 the decline was from a high base as April 2023 exports of $15.4 billion were higher than the monthly average of $14.4 billion for the year.
Notably, electronic exports returned to growth, lending some cheer that underlying end-demand fundamentals remain intact even as volatile pharmaceutical shipments continued to shrink.
However, Mr Brian Lee, an economist at Maybank, noted that while electronics Nodx resumed growth, the key semiconductor segment - which makes up about half of electronics exports - continued to contract.
April’s Nodx performance was also slightly worse than predicted with economists polled by Bloomberg tipping an 8.9 per cent contraction.
On a seasonally adjusted basis, which removes the effects of seasonal variations in the numbers, Nodx grew 7.6 per cent in April from March to reach $14 billion. This was less though than a 9.2 per cent growth expected in the Bloomberg forecast.
Pharmaceuticals exports extended their decline, tumbling 73.3 per cent to $843.8 million in April following a drop of 70.3 per cent in March.
Mr Edward Lee, chief economist at Standard Chartered Bank, said excluding pharmaceuticals, April Nodx would have been up 7.3 per cent year on year.
“April’s headline Nodx continues to indicate a laboured recovery in external demand,” he said.
While there was a pick up in shipments of electronics products, exports of semiconductors contracted 3.6 per cent, he added.
Electronics shipments grew 3.3 per cent year on year after a 9.5 per cent decline in March, potentially suggesting that the March slip was a blip, said Ms Selena Ling, chief economist and head of global markets research and strategy at OCBC.
Growth in electronic exports was underpinned by personal computers, disk media products and other computer peripherals. All climbed from a low base.
Exports of non-electronic products shrank 12.3 per cent from a year earlier, easing from a 23.2 per cent contraction in March. This was led by pullbacks in pharmaceuticals, non-electric engines and motors as well as food preparations.
Exports to Singapore’s top markets dipped in April, though shipments to China, Malaysia, Hong Kong, Indonesia and Japan advanced. The largest contributors to the contraction were the United States, European Union and South Korea.
Exports to the US dropped 40.6 per cent in April, following a 50.2 per cent decline in March. This was led by pharmaceuticals, food preparations and telecommunications equipment.
Shipments to the EU contracted by 55.1 per cent in April, dampened by pharmaceuticals, specialised machinery and telecommunications equipment.
Exports to South Korea declined 23.8 per cent, due to lower shipments of specialised machinery, civil engineering equipment parts and integrated circuits.
Singapore’s total trade expanded by 15.7 per cent year on year in April to $109 billion, reversing from a 1.9 per cent decline in March. This was due to a rise in both oil and non-oil trade.
Total exports grew 13.3 per cent to $55.9 billion, in contrast to a 3.4 per cent fall in March. Total imports expanded 18.3 per cent to $53.2 billion, after a 0.1 per cent dip in March.
Singapore’s Nodx should gradually improve in the second-half of 2024 on the back of an improvement in electronics and as China’s economic growth stabilises, Ms Ling said.
But recovery will be gradual and fragile, according to Mr Chua Han Teng, an economist at DBS Bank.
“We continue to expect Singapore’s electronics shipments to benefit from the ongoing upturn in the global electronics cycle as demand and inventory normalise after 2023’s significant digestion,” he said.
Meanwhile, there are also global uncertainties to monitor, including potential conflicts that could disrupt supply chains, US-China rivalry and US interest rates.
Mr Masahiro Nozaki, an economist at the International Monetary Fund (IMF), said on May 16 that Singapore’s economy is recovering.
Gross domestic product growth is projected to recover to 2.1 per cent in 2024 from 1.1 per cent in last year, reflecting a continued recovery in manufacturing, tourism, and consumer-facing services, said Mr Nozaki, following IMF’s annual “health check” on the Singapore’s economy.
Risks to Singapore’s growth outlook stem mainly from external factors, such as a steeper-than-projected slowdown in China, prolonged tight US monetary policy, and deeper geo-economic fragmentation. On the other hand, stronger global growth would have positive spillovers to Singapore, he said.
Source:Strait Times
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<p>Time: 2024 By: Ministry of Industry and Trade</p>
